The Threshold Initiative is building an evidence base ahead of the next round of international negotiations on plastic pollution.
Ten questions. Honest answers. On the record.
The Threshold Initiative: Public Survey on Plastic Pollution
The science is settled. The costs are documented. What is missing is the mechanism that makes expert consensus politically unavoidable.
What does it take to make the world solve something it already knows is a problem?
Plastic pollution is the most documented environmental failure of our time.
The Threshold Initiative is a policy-generating programme designed to convert expert consensus into binding international regulation.
Ten questions. Each one asks something the system would prefer you did not think about too hard.
Your responses contribute to a public record that will be referenced in the next round of international negotiations.
22 Mt/yr
of plastic enter the environment each year (OECD 2022)
< 9%
of all plastic ever produced has been recycled
2 treaties
on plastic pollution collapsed in 2024 and 2025
€30–75B
estimated annual social cost of plastic pollution
1 of 10
What you know
Microplastics have been found in human blood, in unborn children, and in the deepest ocean trenches on earth.
OECD Global Plastics Outlook 2022 · Ragusa et al., Environment International 2021
Now consider this
If plastic is now present inside every human body on earth, whose responsibility is that?
2 of 10
What you know
Recycling has been the primary public solution to plastic waste for over 30 years. Less than 9% of all plastic ever produced has actually been recycled.
OECD Global Plastics Outlook 2022
Now consider this
If the public solution has failed for three decades, what does that tell us about who controls the definition of the problem?
3 of 10
What you know
Two international treaties to end plastic pollution collapsed in 2024 and 2025. A third round of negotiations is now underway.
INC-4, Ottawa 2024 · INC-5, Busan November 2024
Now consider this
What does it actually take to make the world solve something it already knows is a problem?
4 of 10
What you know
Internal industry documents from 1988 show that plastic producers knew recycling could not work at scale. The consumer recycling campaign ran for more than forty years after that conclusion.
If the harm was known and the solution was fabricated, what obligation does that create?
5 of 10
What you know
400 million tonnes of plastic are produced every year. Without policy intervention, production is projected to triple by 2060.
OECD Global Plastics Outlook 2022
Now consider this
Can a problem triple in scale and still be solved by recycling better?
6 of 10
What you know
Sperm counts have fallen by more than 50% since 1973, at a rate of 1.5% per year. Microplastics have been found in human placentas, in breast milk, and in testicular tissue.
Levine et al., Human Reproduction Update, 2022 · Ragusa et al., Environment International, 2021
Now consider this
At what point does a measurable decline in human reproductive capacity become a public emergency?
7 of 10
What you know
Plastic pollution costs the global economy an estimated 30 to 75 billion euros per year in documented harm: to fisheries, human health, tourism, and marine ecosystems.
OECD Global Plastics Outlook 2022 [derived estimate]
Now consider this
If the annual cost is measurable, who should be paying it?
8 of 10
What you know
Twenty petrochemical companies are responsible for more than half of all single-use plastic waste globally. Regulatory focus for forty years has been placed on the consumer end of the chain.
Does it matter where in the chain regulation is applied?
9 of 10
What you know
The first major health-based plastic lawsuits are being filed in the United States. Legal scholars describe this as the opening of the same liability arc that ended the tobacco era.
Pending US litigation, 2024–2025 · Northeastern University School of Law
Now consider this
If the liability threshold is approaching, how long before producers face the same calculation tobacco companies did?
10 of 10
What you think
The plastic crisis is not a knowledge problem. The science is settled, the costs are documented, the harms are measurable. What has failed is the mechanism for converting that knowledge into binding regulation.
INC-4, INC-5 outcomes, 2024–2025 · OECD Global Plastics Outlook 2022
Now consider this
What would a mechanism that actually worked look like?
You have just done what Spotters do.
The Threshold Initiative is building a global observation network to turn public record into binding regulation.
When the app launches, Spotters track plastic in the real world and add to the evidence base.
Join the waitlist.
Your contact details are held only by The Threshold Initiative and used only to notify you when the app launches. No third parties.
Protected against automated signups. Email will be used solely for launch notification.
You are on the record.
We will contact you when the Threshold app is ready to launch. In the meantime, follow the programme at
thresholdinitiative.org.
The Threshold Initiative
Converting expert alignment into binding regulation on plastic pollution
Plastic pollution is not an unsolved problem. The science is settled. The costs are documented. The harms are measurable.
What is missing is the mechanism: a way to move from expert consensus to political commitment before the next round of negotiations collapses.
The Threshold Initiative combines a citizen observation platform (the Threshold app), a closed expert simulation,
a structured Knowledge Base, a documentary series, and a litigation-ready evidence archive.
Together, these create a 24-month window in which expert alignment can be converted into durable regulation.
The programme is currently in its pre-funding phase, with Programme Associates being onboarded from the expert and institutional communities.
The Threshold app is targeting 5,000 verified Spotters in Phase 1 priority geographies as its first milestone.
Plastic pollution is the starting point, not the boundary. Threshold is a mechanism for converting expert consensus into binding regulation. These are the fault lines it is designed to address, in the sequence that builds the strongest case.
1
Plastic in the human body
Microplastics have been found in human blood, heart tissue, brain tissue, lung tissue, and the placentas of unborn children. This is the entry point: the fact that makes the issue personal and non-negotiable. Sperm counts have fallen 1.5% per year since 1973. The causal chain is being documented.
Active focus
2
The recycling deception
Less than 9% of all plastic ever produced has been recycled. The recycling symbol was an industry-funded campaign designed to neutralise regulation by redirecting responsibility to the consumer. Industry documents from 1988 confirm they knew it would not work at scale. It worked anyway.
Active focus
3
Treaty collapse and political failure
Two global plastic treaties failed within 24 months. Expert consensus is not the obstacle. 171 nations have agreed on the problem. What is missing is an architecture that raises the political cost of inaction above the cost of action. That is what Threshold builds.
Active focus
4
Who pays, and who should
The true cost of plastic pollution, estimated at EUR 30-75 billion annually, is borne by governments, communities, and future generations. Not producers. That asymmetry is the mechanism by which industry consistently captures the regulatory process. Shifting the cost back is the legislative objective.
Building
5
The litigation pathway
Tobacco took decades. Asbestos took longer. In both cases, the regulatory breakthrough came not from political will but from litigation that made concealment more expensive than disclosure. Threshold builds an evidence archive structured to support that same pathway for plastic, on a shorter timeline.
Building
6
The pattern beyond plastic
Plastic pollution is the first application of the Threshold architecture. The mechanism, combining citizen evidence, expert simulation, and litigation-ready documentation, is designed to scale. The systemic failure to convert consensus into law is not unique to plastic. It is the defining problem of the current era of governance.
Future scope
The Threshold Initiative
The third prong of the trident
Science without a public voice is a library. Evidence without reach is a filing cabinet.
Political change at the scale plastic pollution requires has never happened without media — not once, in any domain, in any country.
The Threshold media programme operates across three tracks, each designed for a different audience, a different speed, and a different kind of pressure. Together they form the public face of a programme built in private.
01
Long form
Documentary
A multi-part documentary series following the evidence, the litigation, and the international negotiations as they unfold — not as a retrospective, but as a live record of a crisis in progress.
The audience for a long-form documentary is not the audience that changes its mind on social media.
It is the audience that funds foundations, advises governments, and sits on the boards of the institutions that make the decisions.
Broadcast and streaming distribution. BBC and NatGeo-level production values. The story the world already knows, told at the length and depth it has never been given.
In development
02
Short form and investigative
Multi-media
Shorter, faster, shareable. Investigative journalism partnerships that put specific revelations in front of audiences who do not watch documentaries but who will act on what they see.
The stories are already there: the recycling campaign that the industry knew would not work in 1988 and ran anyway;
the chemical additives in children's toys that appear in the blood of the children who play with them;
the scientific papers documenting microplastics in the arterial plaques of cardiac patients.
Short-form content. Viral format. Impact production designed to change the political conversation in the time it takes to scroll a feed.
Building
03
Owned channels
Social media
The daily drumbeat. A permanent, searchable, public record of the programme's position and the evidence it generates.
The voice that does not require a commission, a broadcast slot, or a distribution deal: it publishes when the evidence lands.
The Threshold Initiative publishes on LinkedIn and YouTube. The YouTube channel is live at
@threshold.initiative.
Short clips, evidence briefs, and programme updates. The social record that the other two tracks can draw from and point back to.
Live
THE THRESHOLD INITIATIVE
Evidence Base & References
Every claim this programme makes is sourced. Every source is listed here. Every document in the corpus — public or restricted — is shown so that a reader can see the full scope of the evidence base and request access where appropriate.
METHODOLOGY
How we assess evidence
A–F FACT CLASSIFICATION
Every factual assertion in every Threshold document is graded on the following scale. The grade appears in brackets after the assertion. Where a grade is absent, the assertion is unsourced and should not be treated as evidence.
Grade
Label
Meaning
A
Verified fact
Established, no credible scientific dispute.
B
Evidence-based
Grounded in peer-reviewed evidence; legitimate uncertainty in specifics.
C
Consensus direction
Direction is clear from the weight of evidence; details contested.
D
Informed inference
Derived from cited figures or expert reasoning; not independently verified.
E
Contested
Evidence exists on both sides; no clear consensus.
F
Unsubstantiated
Claim made without supporting evidence.
DATA CONFIDENCE TAGS
Statistical figures and numerical claims carry an additional tag indicating the strength of the underlying data source.
[C]
Cited primary source
Directly drawn from a peer-reviewed or official source.
[D]
Derived estimate
Calculated from one or more [C] figures; derivation logic stated.
[F]
Order of magnitude
Indicative figure only. Not suitable for precise citation.
TWO-LAYER EVIDENCE ARCHITECTURE
The programme maintains a strict separation between two categories of evidence. Conflating them is the single most serious error the programme is designed to prevent.
Civic Layer
Anonymous, aggregated observations from the Threshold Spotter network. Used for pattern identification, policy briefing, and public communication. Not used as direct evidence in legal proceedings.
Evidentiary Layer
Identified, verified, consent-based records held under chain-of-custody protocols. Built to the standards required for scientific peer review and potential legal disclosure. Access restricted.
CORPUS REFERENCES
References by document
All documents in the programme corpus are listed below. Public documents are freely available. Institutional documents are available to qualified researchers, funders, and policy partners on request. Internal working documents are listed by category only.
PUBLICINSTITUTIONALINTERNALContact programme@thresholdsummit.org to request access to institutional or internal documents.
Tier 1 — Public Documents
The Balance
THR-The-Balance-Public-EN-v2 · English
PUBLIC
OECD. Global Plastics Outlook: Economic Drivers, Environmental Impacts and Policy Options. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2022. [Production 460–1,231 Mt by 2060; leakage 22–44 Mt/yr; ocean stock 140–493 Mt]
IEA. The Future of Petrochemicals. International Energy Agency, 2018.
Marfella R, et al. "Microplastics and Nanoplastics in Atheromas and Cardiovascular Events." New England Journal of Medicine, 390(10):900–910, 7 March 2024.
Ragusa A, et al. "Plasticenta: First Evidence of Microplastics in Human Placenta." Environment International, 146, January 2021.
Landrigan PJ, et al. "The Minderoo-Monaco Commission on Plastics and Human Health." Annals of Global Health, 2023.
PlasticsEurope. Plastics — the Facts. Annual market data series.
If Nothing Changes
EVI-If-Nothing-Changes-EN-v13 · English & French
PUBLIC
OECD. Global Plastics Outlook 2022 and Policy Scenarios to 2060. OECD Publishing, Paris.
Geyer R, Jambeck JR, Law KL. "Production, Use, and Fate of All Plastics Ever Made." Science Advances, 3(7), July 2017.
PlasticsEurope. Plastics — the Facts. Annual market data series.
Marfella R, et al. New England Journal of Medicine, 7 March 2024.
Leslie HA, et al. "Discovery and Quantification of Plastic Particle Pollution in Human Blood." Environment International, 163, May 2022.
Ragusa A, et al. Environment International, January 2021.
UNEP. INC-5 outcome documentation. Busan, December 2024; INC-5.2 Geneva, August 2025.
Science Advances. Global plastic dispersal model, 2025.
Lancet Planetary Health. [Plastic and health burden study], December 2025.
Plastics Recyclers Europe. Annual recycling rate data, 2025.
Programme Overview
THR-Overview-EN-v8 · English & French
PUBLIC
OECD. Global Plastics Outlook 2022.
Marfella R, et al. New England Journal of Medicine, 7 March 2024.
UNEP. INC-5 outcome documentation, 2024.
Programme Philosophy
THR-Philosophy-EN-v10 · English
PUBLIC
OECD. Global Plastics Outlook 2022.
Marfella R, et al. New England Journal of Medicine, 7 March 2024.
Media Brief
MED-Media-Brief-EN-v1 · English
PUBLIC
Marfella R, et al. "Microplastics and Nanoplastics in Atheromas and Cardiovascular Events." New England Journal of Medicine, 7 March 2024. [4.5-fold elevated cardiovascular risk]
OECD. Global Plastics Outlook 2022. [22 Mt/yr leakage figure; production trajectories]
UNEP. INC-5 outcome documentation, Busan, December 2024.
Marfella R, et al. New England Journal of Medicine, 7 March 2024.
UNEP. INC-5 documentation, December 2024.
GDPR — Regulation (EU) 2016/679 (data standards for the Spotter network).
EU AI Act — Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (AI-assisted Reliability Index standards).
GRID-Arendal. UNDP GPIP Africa programme documentation, 2025–2026.
Internal Working Documents
These documents exist and form part of the programme's evidence and methodology record. Titles and contents are not publicly listed. Qualified Associates and institutional partners may request access through the Associates portal. References cited within these documents are listed here for transparency.
Expert Policy Simulation — Rounds 1–10
Closed multi-actor scenario exercise · Summer 2026 to Autumn 2036 · 39 documents · Approx. 211,000 words
INTERNAL
Real-world legal instruments, scientific literature, and regulatory frameworks drawn upon in the development of this simulation:
ITLOS. Advisory Opinion on Climate Change and International Law. 21 May 2024. UNCLOS Arts. 192, 194.
ICJ. Advisory Opinion on Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change. 23 July 2025.
Milieudefensie et al. v. Royal Dutch Shell plc. District Court of The Hague. Case C/09/571932. 26 May 2021.
Harrington v. Purdue Pharma LP. US Supreme Court. 27 June 2024.
Engilis v. Monsanto Co. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, 2025.
Braswell v. United States. 487 U.S. 99 (1988).
People v. Kelly (1976); Frye v. United States (1923). California/US expert evidence standard.
Sargon Enterprises, Inc. v. University of Southern California. California Supreme Court, 2012.
Federal Rule of Evidence 702, as amended 1 December 2023.
Art. 160 NCPC; Art. 1240 Code Civil — France civil procedure and tort law.
REACH Regulation (EC) No 1907/2006. European Chemicals Agency.
ECHA SVHC Candidate List — DEHP (Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate). CAS No. 117-81-7.
Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (EU AI Act).
GDPR — Regulation (EU) 2016/679.
Marfella R, et al. New England Journal of Medicine, 7 March 2024.
OECD. Global Plastics Outlook 2022 and Policy Scenarios to 2060.
Swiss Re. SONAR 2025: Emerging Risk Report.
Lloyd's Market Association. "Beyond PFAS" Advisory, September 2025.
Simulation
Litigation readiness and evidence methodology working documents
INTERNAL
Legal and regulatory instruments cited in the development of these documents:
Milieudefensie et al. v. Royal Dutch Shell plc. District Court of The Hague, 2021.
ITLOS Advisory Opinion, 21 May 2024. UNCLOS Arts. 192, 194.
ICJ Advisory Opinion, 23 July 2025.
Harrington v. Purdue Pharma LP. US Supreme Court, 27 June 2024.
People v. Kelly (1976) / Frye v. United States (1923). California expert evidence standard.
Sargon Enterprises v. University of Southern California. California Supreme Court, 2012.
Federal Rule of Evidence 702 (amended 1 December 2023).
Art. 3:305a BW (Netherlands collective action).
REACH Regulation (EC) No 1907/2006. European Chemicals Agency.
GDPR — Regulation (EU) 2016/679.
EU AI Act — Regulation (EU) 2024/1689.
Marfella R, et al. New England Journal of Medicine, 7 March 2024.
OECD. Global Plastics Outlook 2022.
Strategy · Contacts · Knowledge Base Specification
Internal strategy, outreach, and knowledge architecture documents
INTERNAL
These documents contain strategic, operational, and relationship information. References used in their development are drawn from the same corpus of scientific, legal, and policy sources listed above.
Programme Documents
Read the evidence. Understand the programme.
All documents below are freely available. Download, share, and cite them. If you are an institutional partner or funder, use the Associates portal for the full working archive.
Find your path
Not sure where to start? Select your role and we will show you the right documents in the right order.
🌱
New to THRESHOLD
Start here
🏦
Funder / Investor
The programme case
🏛️
Policy professional
UN delegates, regulators
📰
Journalist / Media
The story and the evidence
💻
App builder
Build the Threshold app
⚖️
Legal / Litigation
Evidence architecture
🔍
Curious
Just exploring
✊
Activist
Ready to act
🏭
Plastics manufacturer
Industry perspective
🎓
Student
Academic context
📋
Reviewer
Full programme due diligence
🤝
Associate
Programme partner
All documents also appear in the full library below.
Access is by invitation.
If you are a Programme Associate and need your credentials, contact
programme@thresholdsummit.org.
Incorrect password. Contact programme@thresholdsummit.org if you need access.
The Althing Simulation
Restricted access · July 2026
Note from Andrew (July 2026): The programme proposal and simulation report are in this restricted area.
All other programme documents are freely available in the public Documents section.
Contact programme@thresholdsummit.org for working archive access.
Ten questions the system would prefer you did not ask
Each question has a documented answer. Each answer points to something you can do. Watch the series, read the evidence, and go on the record.
/Question 1
Question 01 of 10
The answer
The Pledge Archive
Write what you know. Put your name on it.
A Pledge is not a petition. It is a letter: what you know about plastic pollution, what you think should happen, and your name on the record.
The archive will be formally presented to the next round of international treaty negotiations.
About you
Used only to verify your Pledge and send you a copy of your submission. Not shared.
Your letter
Your Pledge is stored securely. It will be included in the public archive presented to international negotiations unless you request otherwise.
Your Pledge is on the record.
Thank you. Your letter has been added to the Threshold Pledge archive.
It will be formally presented to the next round of international negotiations on plastic pollution.
You will receive a copy by email.